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The latest Commitments of Traders report was released, covering positions through Tuesday

Jason Goepfert
2020-06-19

The 3-Year Min/Max Screen didn't show any new extremes of note. "Smart money" hedgers remain net long nearly $40 billion of major equity index futures, which is still the same odd behavior we've seen for weeks. Over the past 10 years, this has been very bullish for stocks, but they would normally be selling into a rally like this, and any change in behavior raises the possibility that something else is happening. Hedgers went net long the U.S. dollar for the first time since early 2018, thanks mainly to ramping up their shorts against the euro. The Backtest Engine shows that over the past decade, hedgers being net long the dollar has been a mixed blessing, though over the next year it averaged a gain of 5.2%. Gold showed muted returns when hedgers were long the dollar.

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