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The latest Commitments of Traders report was released, covering positions through Tuesday

Jason Goepfert
2020-09-18

The 3-Year Min/Max Screen shows that "smart money" hedgers, who have been heavily net long equity index futures for months, suddenly bought significantly more Nasdaq 100 contracts, in both the full and mini futures. The Backtest Engine shows that there have been 56 weeks in the past decade when hedgers held more of the long open interest than short open interest in the NDX mini contract. Three months later, QQQ was higher after 52 of those weeks, averaging 7.0%. This data has been curiously bullish for stocks since late March and it's getting even stronger. Elsewhere, hedgers were busy selling more coffee, natural gas, and soybeans. So far, the latter has been ignoring a big hedger short position, which is a change from recent history.

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