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The latest Commitments of Traders report was released, covering positions through Tuesday

Jason Goepfert
2021-12-17

The 3-Year Min/Max Screen shows that "smart money" commercial hedgers added yet again to massive short bets against major equity index futures, now totaling more than $115 billion. However, we'd once again caution against reading too much into this - since late last spring, this data has acted out of character with the prior decade when it was a reliable gauge. The plunge in palladium has caused hedgers to establish a record long position. Historically, major bull moves happened after hedgers started selling off their long positions (suggesting they were adding exposure to the underlying commodity). They're not far behind in platinum, nearing a net long position for one of the few times in the past decade. In corn, hedgers are holding more than 25% of open interest net short, which preceded a negative 1-year return after 19 out of 22 times per the Backtest Engine.

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