The latest Commitments of Traders report was released, covering positions through Tuesday
The 3-Year Min/Max Screen shows that "smart money" commercial hedgers were pretty aggressive in selling stocks over the past week, particularly the S&P 500 where they now have a record short position. In major equity index contracts, they cycled from more than $46 billion net long a little over a year ago to nearly $60 billion net short this week. According to the Backtest Engine, there have been 18 other weeks with short exposure this large, preceding a positive return over the next couple of weeks after only 6 of them. This data started acting oddly last spring so we don't place as much weight on it as we used to, but still, it's mildly concerning. Elsewhere, they established a new multi-year net long position in the Mexican peso, holding more than 20% of the open interest net long. This was a bullish sign for the peso over the past 15 years, except for 2015-16 when the currency slid relentlessly.
