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The latest Commitments of Traders report was released, covering positions through Tuesday

Jason Goepfert
2021-05-14

The 3-Year Min/Max Screen shows that "smart money" commercial hedgers established only one new multi-year extreme in positioning this week, a short in the British pound. The Backtest Engine shows that over the past 10 years, anytime hedgers held more than 28% of open interest net short, the pound rose over the next 2 months after only 2 out of 15 weeks, and both of those gains were for less than 1%. Over the next 6 months, it lost ground every time. There were no real moves of note in other contracts, as they either continued existing extremes or slightly reduced positions.

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