The latest Commitments of Traders report was released, covering positions through Tuesday
The 3-Year Min/Max Screen shows that "smart money" commercial hedgers didn't establish any new multi-year extremes this week. They've started to reverse a record amount of short exposure in major equity index futures, but have a long way to go before it even approaches neutral territory. They bought a slug of 10-year Treasury note futures, adding to an already-large net long position. Their net long positions in currencies like the Japanese yen and Australian dollar suggest they see limited upside in the U.S. dollar, where they're holding more than 77% of open interest net short. The Backtest Engine shows that there have only been 17 other weeks when they held so much of the open interest net short, and the dollar declined over the next 3 months after 16 of them.
