The latest Commitments of Traders report was released, covering positions through Tuesday
The 3-Year Min/Max Screen shows that "smart money" commercial hedgers didn't establish any new extremes of note this week. Mostly, they modestly reversed prior extremes. In gold, they covered enough short positions to hold the fewest contracts net short (including as a % of open interest) since June 2019. Still, they're holding a significant short position. They also start to cover some shorts in soft commodities, but their total short position in agricultural contracts remains near a record. In fixed income, they whipsawed from a near-record net short position in 2-year Treasuries to a near-record net long position, but this has been an inconsistent predictor for future returns. Hedgers reduced their position in stocks to a near-neutral position. In the VIX, they reduced some of their net long but still hold over 35% of the open interest net long, which is typically a sign that the VIX will rise.
