The latest Commitments of Traders report was released, covering positions through Tuesday

The 3-Year Min/Max Screen shows another week of relative quiet for "smart money" commercial hedgers, with no new extremes of note. They remain heavily short the "C"s - cattle, copper, cotton, corn, and crude, and it hasn't changed much in recent weeks. They added a bit more to already-heavy long exposure in 30-year Treasuries and now hold more than 19% of the open interest net long. The Backtest Engine shows that funds like TLT showed a gain over the next 6 months 82% of the time, averaging 8.0%, when they held this much net long. A caveat is that they're just barely net long 10-year Treasuries and don't seem to be in a hurry to add. Hedgers reduced their net short in major equity index futures and are now holding only about $5 billion worth of contracts against them. That should be a good sign - at least they're not shorting heavily - but this data has acted strangely since the early summer and that makes it a bit tough to rely on it too heavily. Another caveat is that they've been adding to VIX futures, too, and now hold more than 145,000 contracts net long. Of the 37 other weeks they've held this many contracts, the VIX was higher 6 months later 34 times averaging more than 100% per the Backtest Engine.