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The latest Commitments of Traders report was released, covering positions through Tuesday

Jason Goepfert
2022-04-01

The 3-Year Min/Max Screen shows that "smart money" commercial hedgers added to net longs in major equity index futures. In a rare move, they're now net long every major index (S&P 500, DJIA, Nasdaq 100, and Russell 2000). In total, they're net long more than $53 billion in index contracts, exceeding the prior record of about $48 billion in May 2020. It's only one indicator and can get wonky at times, but we'd consider it a point in the bulls' favor. Curiously, they're still not selling much in crude oil, and their shorts against energy contracts continues to shrink. They now have the fewest net short contracts since March 2016. The disaster in bonds prompted hedgers to add to longs in 10-year Treasuries. The Backtest Engine shows that when they held more than 18% of open interest net long, 10-year futures rose over the next 6 months after 46 out of 52 weeks.

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