The latest Commitments of Traders data was released, covering positions through Tuesday
The 3-Year Min/Max Screen shows that "smart money" commercial hedgers only established one new multi-year extreme this week, with heavy short exposure to orange juice. The Backtest Engine shows that any time hedgers held 55% or more of open interest net short over the past 20 years, three months later OJ was positive after only 14 out of 47 weeks. In major equity index futures, hedgers are holding about $30 billion in contracts net short. The 10-week average is now below -$30 billion, the lowest in 2 years. They've also been selling 10-year Treasury futures and are close to moving back to a net short position for the first time since December.
