The economy has officially peaked
The U.S. is "officially" in recession. According to the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the business cycle peaked in February. No big surprise there. This is a conservative group, and by the time they declare a peak in the cycle, there has to be a lot of evidence that it has actually peaked. By the time they've declared a peak in the business cycle over the past 40 years, much of the decline in stocks has already been priced in. We'll have a more detailed look at factor and sector returns on Tuesday; for the S&P 500, it was higher a year after these declarations 4 out of 5 times by an average of 18.3%.
