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The economy has officially peaked

Jason Goepfert
2020-06-08

The U.S. is "officially" in recession. According to the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the business cycle peaked in February. No big surprise there. This is a conservative group, and by the time they declare a peak in the cycle, there has to be a lot of evidence that it has actually peaked. By the time they've declared a peak in the business cycle over the past 40 years, much of the decline in stocks has already been priced in. We'll have a more detailed look at factor and sector returns on Tuesday; for the S&P 500, it was higher a year after these declarations 4 out of 5 times by an average of 18.3%.

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