TCTM and Component Updates
Developed by Dean Christians, the Tactical Composite Trend Model (TCTM) is the culmination of decades of professional trading and financial market research. The model aims to give traders and investors key signals around identifiable market turning points.
The TCTM utilizes an extensive database that covers every bull and bear market since 1927, one of the most robust databases in the market research business. It uses a weight-of-the-evidence approach to identify the major market trend. This composite model features seven critical, time-tested components that alert investors to money-making opportunities or threats. For more information, refer to this Knowledge Base article.
Updates occur monthly or when a new signal emerges. Data as of 2026-01-02.
| MODEL | Signal Count % | STATUS | Last Signal Date |
| Tactical Composite Trend Model | Positive as of 2023-05-26 | ||
| Long-Term Trend Model | Positive as of 2023-05-26 | 2023-05-26 | |
| Composite Risk Warning Model | 10 | Neutral | 2025-11-17 to 2025-11-21 |
| Composite Recession Model | 25 | Neutral | 2020-04-30 to 2020-05-28 |
| Composite Washout Model | 0 | Neutral | 2025-04-08 |
| Composite Thrust Model | 0 | Neutral | 2025-05-05 |
| Composite Confirmation Model | 30 | Neutral | |
| Composite Combined Thrust and Confirmation | 30 | Neutral |
Tactical Composite Trend Model - Positive
The Long-Term Trend Model component for the Tactical Composite Trend Model (TCTM) turned positive on May 22, 2023.
1. Long-Term Trend Model - Positive
The long-term trend model turned positive on May 26, 2023. For related backtest, click here.
2. Composite Risk Warning Model - Neutral
The Composite Risk Warning Model's signal count value is 10%. The Risk Warning Model Signal is 0. For related backtest, click here.
3. Composite Recession Model - Neutral
The Composite Recession model signal count value is 25%. The Composite Recession Model Signal is 0. For related backtest, click here.
4. Composite Washout Model - Neutral
The Composite Washout Model's signal count value is 0%. The Composite Washout Model Signal is 0. For related backtest, click here.
5. Composite Thrust Model - Neutral
The Composite Thrust Model's signal count value is 0%. The Composite Thrust Model Signal is 0. For related backtest, click here.
6. Composite Confirmation Model - Neutral
The Composite Confirmation Model signal count increased to 30%, reflecting several new component alerts. Click here, here, and here for the research reports.
The TCTM Composite Confirmation Model was recently modified due to changes in data availability and integrity. Several of the model's original components, based on fundamental data series, are no longer available or have been altered in a way that makes them incompatible with the model's objectives. In their place, new daily breadth indicators, which date back to the 1920s, have been incorporated. This not only preserves the model's analytical strength but also significantly extends its historical coverage, enhancing its robustness and relevance for long-term market evaluation.
7. Composite Combined Thrust and Confirmation - Neutral
The composite combined thrust and confirmation model signal count decreased to 30%, reflecting the expiration of a component alert.
Historical Performance
The TCTM is not a pure black-box model. Its purpose is to enhance and complement your investment process.
Risk-Off Composite Model
The Risk-Off Composite Model signal count increased to 40%, reflecting a percentage of issues outperforming the S&P 500 signal and a percentage of defensive sectors outperforming alert.
The Risk-Off Composite Model is not a member of the TCTM. I use it as a secondary input to assess risks around potential market peaks.