Tactical Composite Trend Model Update

I will distribute updates to the Tactical Composite Trend Model via a published note on a go-forward basis.

Data as of 4/13/22.

MODEL	Signal Count %	STATUS
Tactical Composite Trend Model		Cautious Bull as of 1/18/22
Long-Term Trend Model		Bullish
Composite Risk Warning Model	10	Bearish as of 1/13/22
Composite Recession Model	0	Neutral
Composite Washout Model	10	Neutral
Composite Thrust Model	30	Neutral
Composite Confirmation Model	10	Neutral
Composite Master New Bull Market Model	23.633	Neutral

Tactical Composite Trend Model - Cautious Bull

The TCTM maintains a cautious bull status as the recession and long-term trend models remain in a favorable position despite the composite risk warning model signal. Now that the market has corrected, I will be monitoring the washout and thrust models for indications that the countertrend move in the market is over.

The TCTM is not a pure black-box model that says we should be all in or out. And it should act as a complementary tool to your research process.

To see any published research about this model, click here.

1. Long-Term Trend Model - Bullish

The long-term trend model remains in a bullish position. Annualized returns are favorable when the model is positive.

2. Composite Risk Warning Model - Bearish

The composite count has now fallen to 10% with the expiration of additional components.

Please click on the following links if you would like to read the notes for the components that triggered the risk-off signal.

To see published research about the risk warning model, click here.

3. Composite Recession Model - Neutral

While we've seen some less than robust economic data of late, I would not expect any changes to the recession model count for now.

4. Composite Washout Model - Neutral

After increasing to as high as 30%, the composite washout model signal count has fallen to 10%.

5. Composite Thrust Model - Neutral

I will be monitoring the thrust model for a buy signal. The signal count increased to 30%, with 3 new alerts triggering since 2/2/22.

Percent above 10-day average reversal on 2/2/22
Breadth Thrust on 3/28/22
Rate of Change Thrust on 3/28/22

6. Composite Confirmation Model - Neutral

The composite confirmation model signal count remains low. Once the current correction ends, I would watch this model as the signal count should increase as the recovery develops. The CCM typically lags during a rally as the components are big-picture algorithms that take more time to trigger.

7. Composite Master New Bull Market Model - Neutral

The composite master-bull-market model signal count remains low. Once the current correction ends, I would watch this model as the signal count should increase as the recovery develops.

Risk-Off Composite Model - Neutral

The risk-off composite model is an excellent secondary tool for managing market exposure with the TCTM Risk Warning Model. Please click on the following link for a note on the model. Click here.

After triggering a risk-off signal in December, the composite count has fallen to zero with the expiration of all alerts.

The Tactical Composite Trend Model (TCTM), created by Dean Christians, represents decades of professional trading and financial market research. The goal of the TCTM is to provide traders and investors with key signals around identifiable market turning points.

The TCTM utilizes an extremely powerful database that covers every bull and bear market since 1927 - one of the most robust databases in the market research business. It uses a weight-of-the-evidence approach to identify the major market trend. This composite model features 7 critical, time-tested components that alert investors to money-making opportunities or threats. For more details, see this Knowledge Base article.