Strong rally and strong momentum

Troy Bombardia
2020-07-07
Global equity markets are rallying relentlessly, with tech still leading the way in the U.S.

Global equity markets are rallying relentlessly, with tech still leading the way in the U.S.. Yesterday saw the S&P 500 surge another 1.5%, making this the 22 day in which the S&P rallied more than 1.5% over the past 100 days:

Such powerful rallies are quite common during/near periods of market turmoil. Bear markets have the largest 1 day gains, and post-bear market rallies also have large 1 day gains. Here's what happened next to the S&P when so many large daily gains were clustered together in the past:

Outside of the Great Depression, historical cases of strong momentum usually led to more gains for U.S. stocks in the next 1-4 weeks and more gains over the next 6-12 months. As one would expect, historical cases were mostly bearish for VIX:

Keep in mind that all of this has occurred during a period of prolonged economic policy uncertainty. The U.S. Economic Policy Uncertainty Index's 6 month average has soared to an all-time high:

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