Streak Without A 1% Loss About To End?

For the first time in months, the S&P 500 is in danger of suffering a 1% daily loss. It would mark the first time since June 27 it had done so.

The streak of 50+ days is one of the longest in the last 20 years.

Let's go back to 1928 and look for every time the index lasted at least 50 days without a 1% loss and then faltered. We'll only include times that the S&P had set a 52-week high at some point during the past 50 days.

Overall returns were on the weak side, especially shorter-term. Two weeks later, the index was higher 17 out of the 38 times and its average return was far enough below average to suggest significance. Even up to a month later, returns were below average and the risk/reward was skewed to the downside.

Combined with the other factors we've been discussing in recent weeks, the potential end to this streak suggests a poor risk/reward for buyers over a multi-week time frame.