Soybean rally

Soybean prices are rallying, with the media primarily attributing this to Chinese buying. This has pushed Soybean Optix to the highest level since the last commodities bull market ended:

Such high sentiment readings have been a modestly bearish factor for soybeans over the next year. But in the short-medium term, this was not consistently bullish nor bearish since high sentiment was also a characteristic of massive agricultural rallies:

We can further narrow down the historical sample size to only look at the first historical cases in over a year. When we do that, soybeans' returns over the next 3 months were much weaker: