Soybean rally

Troy Bombardia
2020-09-15

Soybean prices are rallying, with the media primarily attributing this to Chinese buying. This has pushed Soybean Optix to the highest level since the last commodities bull market ended:

Such high sentiment readings have been a modestly bearish factor for soybeans over the next year. But in the short-medium term, this was not consistently bullish nor bearish since high sentiment was also a characteristic of massive agricultural rallies:

We can further narrow down the historical sample size to only look at the first historical cases in over a year. When we do that, soybeans' returns over the next 3 months were much weaker:

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