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Small caps near record rebound

Jason Goepfert
2020-12-10

There's quite a bit of chatter out there right now about the Russell 2000 being 30% above its 200-day average. That's nearly a record dating back to its inception in 1978. There were only 2 other times it exceeded a 30% spread from its long-term average.

Both ended up leading to declines, but in 1983 it rallied strongly for months first. For the S&P 500, it was a better sign.

Looking at 25% spreads, it wasn't quite so negative for the Russell except in the short-term.

The S&P 500 dropped over the next 2 weeks every time - except for the current one. Maybe that means it will buck the rest of the trend, which would be too bad for bulls since the index rose over the next 6 months every time.

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