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Sliding back

Jason Goepfert
2020-04-21

After 7 out of the past 20 days saw an Up Volume Ratio above 75%, stocks have now suffered back-to-back sessions with less than 25% Up Volume. This did not mean that the positive thrust was doomed to failure. While a couple of them saw a large loss within the next month, all 6 times it triggered since 1962 saw the S&P 500 higher a year later by an average of 16.5%. The dates were 1975-02-25, 1978-12-18, 2008-11-06
2009-09-01, 2011-07-11, and 2011-11-01. If we only require 6 days of big Up Volume (instead of 7), then back-to-back < 25% sessions, the sample size rises to 15. A year later, the S&P was higher after 14 of those signals.

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