Silver meets the month of July

Key points

• Historically, July has been the best month of the year for Silver
• Unfortunately, there are zero guarantees from year to year
• We analyze the history of silver performance in July to help traders assess the possibilities for 2024

Silver pulls back after a substantial advance

In just over four months, Silver rallied 45% before pulling back over 10% in the last month. Price remains well above it's 200-day moving average, however, MACD remains in a downtrend.

The question on every trader's tongue is, "Will the uptrend resume, or is further consolidation ahead?" We are not pundits or forecasters and do not possess a crystal ball. Either outcome is possible. Still, there does appear to be good reason to be highly vigilant and to give the bullish case the benefit of the doubt during July.

July has been good for Silver overall

The chart below displays the average monthly return for Silver. Note that the top-performing month has been July.

The chart below looks "under the hood" at July's performance and measures average daily performance and the percentage of times each day was positive. Note that performance tends to be best during the beginning and end of the month, with a bit of choppiness in the middle.

The chart below displays the hypothetical cumulative performance from holding a long position in silver futures only during the month of July starting in 1970.

The table below summarizes silver performance during the month of July. 

What the research tells us…

Seasonality is not "market timing." The primary function of seasonality is to tell you "When to look where." Historical results have been quite favorable for Silver during July, so it makes sense to keep a close eye on Silver during the new month and to give the bullish case the benefit of the doubt. That said, each trader must look to their favorite method or methods for timing the exact entry of a bullish trade to trigger them into the market rather than relying solely on seasonality as a timing trigger. Non-futures traders can access the silver market via iShares Silver Trust (ticker SLV) or by using options on ticker SLV.