Short term volatility coming down

Volatility is falling as daily % movements in markets decline. The S&P 500's 10 day realized volatility is falling after reaching the highest level in more than 3 decades:

Here's a longer term view of this chart:

When volatility fell below 30 for the first time in more than 40 days, the S&P's returns over the next few weeks and months were mostly bearish. Markets remained volatile for the foreseeable future, which isn't surprising given that all of the cases occurred near major bear markets:

Looking at this from another way, here were the historical cases in which volatility went from >100 to <30 over the past 3 months:

Once again, this was mostly short term bearish for equities.

It's not just volatility in equities that's falling. Gold's 10 day realized volatility is falling as well.

Gold usually struggled over the next few weeks and months when this happened in the past: