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Short term optimism records being shattered

Troy Bombardia
2020-04-30
Short term optimism across several ETFs is at multi-year highs.

Our SPY short term optimism index's 3 week average is at one of the highest readings in years:

As is the case with most sentiment extremes, similar extreme readings usually led to a short term pullback followed by more gains over the next 6-12 months:

Similarly, IWM Optix is at the highest level ever. 


The 2nd highest reading was in October 2011, when IWM (Russell 20000 ETF) fell -12.8% over the next month:

Instead of just looking at single day readings for Optix, IWM Optix's 15 day average is also at a multi-year high. Similar readings led to a small short term pullback followed by more gains over the next 6-12 months:

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