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SentimenTrader.com Risk On/Off Indicator Buy Signal

Dean Christians
2021-10-19
The SentimenTrader.com risk on/off indicator registered a bearish to bullish reversal buy signal at the close of trading on 10/18/21. Let's assess the outlook for the stock market.

The SentimenTrader.com Risk On/Off indicator registered a range rank reversal buy signal at the close of trading on 10/18/21.

Let's assess historical signal performance to see if we should be increasing equity exposure in our portfolio.

If you would like to read the original concept note, please click here.

THE CONCEPT

The SentimenTrader.com risk on/off indicator range rank model identifies when the indicator reverses from a bearish to bullish condition. The model will issue an alert based upon the following conditions. 

SIGNAL CRITERIA

  1.  The SentimenTrader.com risk on/off indicator range rank crosses below 5%. i.e., the reset
  2.  If Condition 1 is confirmed and The SentimenTrader.com risk on/off indicator range rank crosses above 68.5%, buy the S&P 500.

The model uses an 84-day lookback period for the range rank indicator. If you were wondering, a range rank measures the current value relative to all other values in percentage terms over the lookback period. 100% = Highest and 0% = Lowest.

CURRENT DAY CHART

Please click here for a link to the SentimenTrader.com risk on/off Indicator page on the website. 


The trading statistics in the table below reflect the optimal days-in-trade holding period of 22 days. When I run optimizations for trading signals, I cap the max number of days at 42. i.e., I optimize to find the best DIT holding period between 5 and 42 days.

HOW THE SIGNALS PERFORMED

The performance results and risk/reward profile look excellent across all time frames. Since 2012, the 2-week timeframe has registered 24/26 winners.

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Risk Disclosure: Futures and forex trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing ones’ financial security or life style. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Hypothetical Performance Disclosure: Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown; in fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk of actual trading. for example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all which can adversely affect trading results.

Testimonial Disclosure: Testimonials appearing on this website may not be representative of other clients or customers and is not a guarantee of future performance or success.