Sentiment and seasonals impacting corn and platinum

Key points

• Corn is trending lower in line with seasonal expectations - however, sentiment has already gotten overdone to a bearish extreme
• Platinum sentiment became overly bullish during a recent rally, with the seasonally weak months of August and September looming
• Both markets appear to offer opportunities to play the short side - but limiting risk exposure is paramount

Corn is trending lower on seasonality - but sentiment is overdone

In this article, dated 2024-06-13, we wrote about the potential for seasonal weakness in the corn market. Well, so far, so good - or bad, depending on one's point of view.

The two screenshots from the original article below illustrate the basic argument - Corn has demonstrated a strong tendency to show weakness from mid-June into early August.

As you can see in the chart below, Corn has "followed the script" almost perfectly so far this time. As this is written, the corn futures contract is down roughly 50 points (at $50 a point, this represents a decline of -$2,500 in contract value since the original article appeared).

As you can also see in the bottom clip of the chart above, July tends to be the worst month, so the potential for further downside action remains high. So, it makes sense to continue to give the bearish case the benefit of the doubt if price action continues to confirm the trend. However, bearish traders should be on heightened alert for a profit-taking (or at least exposure-reducing) opportunity.

The chart below highlights all dates when Corn Optix was below 19%. The most recent period began on 2024-06-28. As you can see, it doesn't happen often, and often - though notably, not always - occurs near market lows.

Subsequent Corn futures performance is highlighted in the table below.

Median price returns are positive across the board. The key results to consider are the 74% Win Rate after three months and especially the 90% Win Rate (and 12% Median Gain) after six months.

There are no guarantees that the past will be prologue, but the key takeaways seem to be:

• The current downtrend can continue for a while (again, July has historically been a very weak month for Corn)
• However, once the current decline ends, the reversal could be swift and significant

Corn traders holding a short position are encouraged to carefully consider and monitor their trailing stops to lock in profits before they get away.

Platinum sentiment flashes yellow as seasonal weakness looms

The chart below highlights those dates when the 50-day moving average of Platinum Optix crossed above 50 while Platinum futures were above their 150-day moving average. The most recent signal occurred on 2026-06-26.

The table below summarizes the subsequent Platinum performance.

Clearly, this is no "sure thing" sell signal. However, there has been a definite bias to the downside following previous signals. 

The chart below displays the Annual Seasonal Trend for Platinum. Note that while July has a slight historical upside bias, August has tended to be weak, and September has been the worst month historically for Platinum.

This combination of overly bullish sentiment, impending unfavorable seasonals, and recently weakening price action suggests that traders look for opportunities to play the short side of the Platinum market in the months ahead.

What the research tells us…

Trading is never a sure thing and is always a game of odds. Stacking factors (such as price action, sentiment, and seasonality) is a helpful way to identify potential trading opportunities. Currently, both Corn and Platinum appear to be seriously biased to the downside. History suggests that Corn may continue to show weakness into August (and then potentially bounce meaningfully). History also suggests that weakness in Platinum could continue well into September. All "could be" aside, traders should closely monitor price action- and especially their own risk exposure - and look to press their advantage when the price is showing weakness and potentially lock in profits quickly if and when price action reverses.