Ringing in Spring with EFA

NOTE: This article has been updated with several corrections since it was originally posted.

Ticker EFA is an ETF that tracks the MSCI EAFE Index, an international index comprised of over 900 stocks from developed countries around the globe.

The chart below displays the annual seasonal trend for ticker EFA since it started trading in 2001.

Anything jump out at you? Anything at all? Well, if your eyesight is in reasonably decent shape you might notice the tendency for this ETF (and the underlying index) to put in a low in late March. It is important to note that this does NOT mean that this particular trend is guaranteed to play out every single year.  But if one were to bet, it would seem like the way to play. 

The EFA Seasonally Favorable Spring Period

For the record, the anticipated "favorable" period extends for 19 trading days after the close on March trading day #20. 

The chart below displays the hypothetical cumulative percentage gain or loss achieved by holding EFA ONLY during this 19-day period every year since the ETF started trading in 2001.

The table below displays the year-by-year results.

The table below displays a summary of results.

This year that period extends from the close on 3/26/21 through the close on 4/23/2021. Will EFA cooperate this time around? Or will this be an off year? As always, time will tell. But the key thing to note is that odds appear to favor the long side during this particular period of time.