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Rate driven

Jason Goepfert
2021-03-04

The Daily Shot newsletter highlighted the recent theme of tech stocks being driven by moves in intermediate-term Treasuries. He noted that the 90-day correlation between daily changes in QQQ and IEF had spiked to a recent high.

Indeed, it's the highest since the inception of the fund nearly 20 years ago. While most would like to use this heightened correlation as a sign for tech stocks, it was more consistent as a sign for IEF, which rallied after other extremely high correlations.

The correlation turned positive back in December, and IEF has suffered since then, more than it had in the past.

But now it has climbed to one of the highest on record, which more consistently led to gains starting one month and forward.

Here is QQQ after the correlations turned positive.

And then again after it climbed to a very high level.

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