Price and Seasonality align for Soybeans
Key points:
- Soybeans are entering a favorable seasonal period and soybean price action remains favorable
- This combination of favorable price action and seasonality offers speculators a potential opportunity
- ETF ticker SOYB offers an alternative to trading riskier soybeans futures
Price and seasonality align for soybeans
Soybeans have historically been one of the most reliably cyclical markets. Due to the planting and harvesting seasons, prices tend to rise from early October into mid-July, and decline the rest of the time. Of course, this is NOT a roadmap to how price will act in any given year. Nevertheless, when seaonality and price action agree for soybeans, the odds favor the trading playing that side of the market.
The chart below shows soybean price action for the last several years. Note that price is presently in an established uptrend.
The chart below shows the Annual Seasonal Trend for soybeans, and highlights the period form Trading Day of the Year (TDY) #66 through TDY #90. For 2026, that period runs from the close on April 8th through May 12th.
The next chart shows the cumulative hypothetical gain from holding a long position in soybean futures during this period every year starting in 1956.
The table below summarizes performance results. Note that a 64% Win Rate clearly highlights the fact that this is no "sure thing." That said, size of winners relative to losers skews strongly to the favorable side (ex., 20 gains of $1,500 or more versus 6 losses of $1,500 or more).
Note that traders who eschew futures contracts can play the long side of the soybean market via the Teucrium Soybean ETF (ticker SOYB), which is intended to track soybean futures, but which trades like shares of stock.
What the research tells us…
Soybeans are a highly cyclical market. Likewise, due to the planting schedule in the U.S., the spring period often sees bean prices rally as concerns about the upcoming harvest for the current year is in doubt. The current combination of favorable price action and a favorable seasonal period does not guarantee that bean prices will rise in the months ahead. However, it does provide a favorable setup for speculators willing to assume the risk.