Precious metals and USD sentiment

Troy Bombardia
2020-07-24

The recent precious metals surge pushed silver's Optix to its highest level in years:

Precious metals and USD sentiment

While at the same time, the U.S. Dollar's decline pushed its Optix to the lowest level in years:

Precious metals and USD sentiment

Such optimism towards silver and pessimism towards the USD was last seen at the precious metals peak in 2011. Before that, this consistently led to pullbacks in silver over the next few months:

Precious metals and USD sentiment

And led to rallies in the U.S. Dollar Index over the next 3-6 months:

Precious metals and USD sentiment

As for the S&P 500, this led to mixed (but more bearish than random) returns over the next 6 months as the U.S. Dollar rallied:

Precious metals and USD sentiment

Gold's VIX surged 2 days ago:

Precious metals and USD sentiment

In the past, such large jumps in gold VIX usually led to gold underperforming over the next year:

Precious metals and USD sentiment