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Paying Close Attention to Copper

by Sentimentrader
2026-08-06
Copper has reached a 252-day high without confirmation from its futures curve or the copper/gold ratio. Similar conditions produced weak near-term returns, but copper's relative weakness versus gold historically preceded much stronger performance over the following year.

Key points

  • Copper is at a 252-day high, but the COPPER Term Structure remains in the lower 30% of its 252-day range.
  • After similar combinations, copper's 1- and 2-month median returns were slightly negative, with the edge appearing only at 3 to 6 months.
  • After the copper/gold ratio broke below 0.16, copper's 1-year median return was strong, while gold's forward performance lagged copper's.

A price high that isn't typical demand-driven

After copper printed a 252-day high, the futures curve is not behaving like a typical demand-driven breakout. The HG1/HG6 term structure, labeled COPPER Term Structure, reads 0.95 and sits in the lower 30% of its own 252-day range. A strong near month usually signals spot tightness, and this reading does not show near-month strength, yet price has already run ahead.

Paying Close Attention to Copper

To capture this combination, we require copper's 252-day range rank at 100 and the term-structure rank below 30.Click here to see the details.

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