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Outlook

Jason Goepfert
2021-12-16

STOCKS: Hold

Sentiment hit a pessimistic extreme by early December and then buyers showed enough interest to trigger a thrust in breadth. Those are reliable precursors to higher prices. There is a lot of disagreement among sectors, though, with negative divergences in tech but impressive participation in sectors like consumer staples. We should work higher but it's a bifurcated market.

BONDS: Hold

Despite mostly steady prices, investors turned pessimistic on bonds to a nearly decade-high degree by late November. Sentiment has recovered since then, which has been a mostly positive sign over the past 20 years, but not necessarily prior to then.

GOLD: Hold
Gold and miners were rejected after trying to recover above their 200-day averages in May. Some oversold extremes in breadth measures among miners triggered in late September, and they rebounded strongly then gave those gains back. Still not much of an apparent edge here.

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