Optimism in agriculture

Agricultural prices continue to trend up, whether due to Chinese buying or supply constraints in Europe. Corn Optix's 5 dma is at 66, a level which in the past few years marked intermediate term tops in corn.

From 1991 - present, this led to below average returns over the next year:

And once again this consistently led to intermediate term tops in the past 5 years:

Soybeans Optix's 5 dma is at the highest level in almost a decade (79):

This led to worse than random returns for soybeans over the next year:

Looking more closely at the past 10 years, this was a consistently bearish sign for soybeans over the next few weeks and months:

Similarly, sugar Optix's 5 dma is at 71...

...a level which mostly led to losses for sugar over the next year:

And wheat Optix's 5 dma is at 68...

...which mostly led to losses for wheat over the next year:

Overall, sentiment in the agricultural commodities sector is extremely high. Outside of a rare few massive commodity runups, this is not a good sign for bulls over the next few weeks and months.