Oil and gold

The recent price action between oil and gold has been drastically different. Oil has been smashed by the coronavirus-driven recession, while gold continues to trend higher. Bulls' thesis for gold is simple: the government's do-anything-we-can attitude will results in lots of money printing, which is good for gold since "you can't print gold". 

Putting aside whether or not that thesis is valid, Gold Optix's 20 dma is the highest it has been in years. 

In the past, optimism towards gold was usually this high during a bull market (2000-2011). Hence why gold's 1 year forward returns were more bullish than random. But sometimes this led to a pullback over the next few weeks and months:

Gold's uptrend and oil's crash has caused the gold:oil ratio to SOAR. The ratio's 2 month standard deviation has gone through the roof:

Less extreme cases were quite bullish for oil over the next 6-12 months. Granted, the threshold for "similar historical cases" occurred 1.5 months again. Oil has only fallen even more since then:

Here's what gold did next: