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Nonfarm Payroll Miss > 100k

by Sentimentrader
2026-08-10
The July 2026 nonfarm payroll report missed expectations by over 100k jobs. The strong "risk-on" sentiment driven by rate cut expectations suggests equities will see a near-term upward trend.

Key points

  • A massive nonfarm payroll miss (>100k) .
  • Over the next 1 to 5 days, gold typically continues its upward trend.
  • The current market reaction ("T+0") was much stronger and more uniformly positive across sectors than historical averages, suggesting a "risk-on" sentiment driven by rate cut expectations.

Nonfarm Payroll Miss > 100k

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the July jobs report last Friday. Nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23,000 jobs in July 2026, while economists had predicted a median increase of 85,000. Therefore, the difference between the actual and the survey showed a miss of 108k.

Nonfarm Payroll Miss > 100k

Let's look at equity, bond, and commodity performance when the NFP number shows a variance of -100k or more between the actual and survey to see if we can find an information edge.

Please note the following:

  • If the market is closed on the release date (e.g., Good Friday), we roll the performance data to the next active trading day.
  • Source: BLS and Bloomberg

Release Day Results

As shown in the table below, when the NFP data misses expectations by more than 100k, Gold and Commoditie

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