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Manic money

Jason Goepfert
2021-02-16

Last week, the NAAIM survey of active money managers showed the biggest amount of groupthink in the history of that survey. The latest monthly survey of big money managers from Bank of America isn't far off.

With a net 61% overweight to stocks among the managers, it's the 2nd-highest reading in 17 years. The only month when they had a higher allocation was January 2011.

At the same time, they've given up on bonds, being more than 60% underweight.

The survey has a mixed record of being a contrary indicator. It's okay, and is more contrary than not at extremes, but it's less consistent than more common ones. That's typical for big-money types of surveys. 

We could maybe take it as a minor warning for stocks and tailwind for bonds, but it's hard to place too much weight on it.

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