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Korean stock market: Crater Yes, Capitulation No

Jay Kaeppel
2026-07-30
The Korean Stock Index (KOSPI) has plunged almost 40% in just over a month. Many traders are wondering if the worst is over and if a buying opportunity is at hand. Herein, we detail the latest action of three "panic" indicators to assess whether or not we have seen true capitulation.

Key Points:

  • The KOSPI, or Korean Composite Stock Price Index, staged a massive rally in a little more than a year and has since plunged
  • Now the usual argument is taking place between those pundits who view this as a buying opportunity versus those who believe that a blow-off top was completed and that we are now in the early stages of a long, painful decline.
  • Below, we highlight three "panic" indicators that can typically be relied upon to separate the former from the latter
  • So far, and despite the severity of the recent decline, we have not seen true capitulation

The KOSPI sells off

The KOSPI, or Korean Composite Stock Price Index, is the benchmark stock index of South Korea, tracking all common stocks on the Korea Exchange (KRX). It functions as a primary economic indicator for the country, similar to the S&P 500 in the United States. For trading purposes, I typically look to trade the iShares MSCI South Korea ETF (EWY), which generally trades with a correlation of 80% to 90% to the KOSPI.

After staging a massive rally of 297% in fourteen and a half months between April 2025 and June 2026, the index has since plummeted by 38% in just five weeks. Some are touting this decline as just the beginning of something worse, while others are claiming it is a buying opportunity.

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