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< BACK TO ALL REPORTS

Junk isn't confirming the fear

Jason Goepfert
2021-01-28

Dean has pointed out in previous notes that the high-yield bond market is still looking relatively healthy. While not a perfect leading indicator, we do often see trouble brewing in that market before we do in stocks.

That's why it's interesting that the big spike in the VIX "fear gauge" for stocks wasn't confirmed by a similar move in high-yield credit default swap prices. The VIX jumped nearly 75% from its 5-day low while the HY CDX didn't even rise 10%.

This is been a modestly good sign for the shorter-term.

When we do see the CDX jumping along with the VIX, it's usually been during bigger volatility events, so returns over the next couple of weeks were worse, but over the next few months, were better.

Again, not a perfect signal by any stretch, but we should be a bit more worried about imminent trouble if/when CDX starts jumping, too.

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