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Jump in existing home sales

Troy Bombardia
2020-07-24
Existing Home Sales surged by the highest level ever.

One of the main advantages of real estate is that it's less volatile than stocks (some could also argue that this is a disadvantage, since low volatility comes hand in hand with less liquidity). And while stocks crashed then surged during the coronavirus pandemic, U.S. residential real estate has been relatively resilient. New Home Sales, Housing Starts, and Existing Home Sales are all rebounding after these figures crashed during the lockdown. Existing Home Sales' monthly % change was the highest ever:

Such large 1 month increases in Existing Home Sales were mostly a positive for US REITs over the next 6-12 months as this often signaled the start of an economic recovery (see 2002, 2008, and 2015). Granted, the most recent case was not a bullish example (Feb 2020) since it occurred just as global financial markets fell off a cliff:

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 Homebuilding Index has clawed its way out from a deep slump towards its previous high:

When homebuilder stocks rallied after a massive plunge, they had a tendency to rally in the months ahead:

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