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July Week 5 Meets the Stock Market (and Treats it Badly)

Jay Kaeppel
2021-07-23
Having a 5th Friday in July is the exception to the rule. Given the stock market's past performance during THE WEEK AFTER July Week 5, maybe that's a good thing. In this piece, we take a closer look at the stock market's difficulty during this particular timeframe.

IMPORTANT NOTE: The performance results displayed in the original version of this article posted on 7/23 were correct, however the wrong week was referenced in the test.  

  • All of the data and performance #'s ARE CORRECT
  • However, the data and performance #'s are all for THE WEEK AFTER the 5th week of July (i.e., the week ending on the 1st Friday in August ONLY during those years when there is a 5th Friday in July)

The text below has been update to reflect this correction.

In the 71 years starting in 1950, there have been only 30 years with a 5th Friday during July. 2021 will mark the 31st such year. Does this matter? Well, take a look at the numbers below and decide for yourself.

THE WEEK AFTER JULY WEEK 5

The table below displays the weekly price change for the S&P 500 during the WEEK AFTER the 5th full week of July since 1950.

The chart below displays the same information in column format.

The chart below displays results in a cumulative format (the chart includes ONLY those years that have a 5th Friday in July).

Results are summarized in the table below.

SUMMARY

Is the S&P 500 doomed to fall the week ending 8/6/21? Not at all. Still, the results above suggest that traders should go into next week fully prepared to deal with whatever may come.

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Risk Disclosure: Futures and forex trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing ones’ financial security or life style. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Hypothetical Performance Disclosure: Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown; in fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk of actual trading. for example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all which can adversely affect trading results.

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