JK Election Cycle Months

Key Points:

• Under the cover of volatility and seeming randomness, the stock market has tended to move in a cyclical fashion
• One of the primary cycles that seems to influence performance is the four-year (48-month) presidential election cycle
• Certain months within the 48-month cycle have seen more consistently favorable results
• This piece details my own way of analyzing the election cycle, using a pattern that I refer to as the JK Election Cycle Months

Updating JK Election Cycle Months

I wrote about this cycle originally in a piece dated April 5, 2022. I view the Election Cycle as 12 months per year across four separate years: Post-Election, Mid-Term, Pre-Election, and Election. The theory is that the stock market performs better (i.e., higher returns and more consistently profitable) during certain months within this 48-month cycle than during others. The full cycle appears in the table below.

The 18 months containing the word "Stocks" implies that we want to be in the stock market during these months. I generally refer to these as "favorable" months. I am essentially agnostic on the stock market during months that do not contain the word "Stocks." They should not be considered outright bearish (although long-term results during these months have been quite unfavorable, as we will detail momenta