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It's time to keep an eye on the US Dollar

Jay Kaeppel
2022-03-29
The US Dollar has enjoyed a strong run over the past ten months. However, several seasonal, sentiment, and price indicators suggest the potential for less favorable action in the months ahead.

Key Points

  • Despite low rates, high debt, and competition from Bitcoin, etc., the US Dollar has performed very well since bottoming in May 2021
  • Unfortunately, the dollar is now entering a period of typical seasonal weakness
  • Additionally, sentiment has reached a bullish level that has presaged dollar weakness in the past

Seasonality

The chart below displays the annual seasonal trend for the US Dollar. Note the large unfavorable period over much of the year - extending from Trading Day of the Year (TDY) #59 through TDY #203. For 2022, this period extends from 3/24 through 10/18.

The chart below displays the growth of $1 invested in the US Dollar only during this unfavorable period every year starting in 1985.

The table below displays a summary of annual results.

Dollar Optix

The chart below displays the action of the US Dollar in the top clip and the 100-day moving average of Dollar Optix in the bottom clip. The red dots highlight those times when the 100-day average for Dollar Optix crossed above 65. This represents an extended period of high optimism regarding the dollar.

The table below displays a summary of the results following previous signals.

What the research tells us…

The US Dollar has enjoyed a strong uptrend in recent months. And for the moment, at least, that trend remains intact. Nevertheless, as you can see in the monthly chart below (courtesy of ProfitSource), the dollar faces significant resistance in the 100-105 range. 

In light of the potentially limited upside, combined with the seasonal and sentiment headwinds detailed above, traders and investors may wish to consider dialing back some of their recent bullishness. A trader wishing to fade the current trend may look at ticker UDN (Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bearish Fund), an ETF that trades inversely to US Dollar futures. 

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