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It's time for aggressive traders to revisit GLD

Jay Kaeppel
2026-06-29
After a massive rally, the gold ETF has sold off almost 30% in just five months. On a trend-following basis, things look bleak. However, based on sentiment and seasonality, it appears that aggressive contrarian traders should be looking closely for an opportunity to play the long side of ticker GLD in the months ahead.

Key points:

  • Gold enjoyed a terrific run into early 2026, but has been breaking down hard in recent months
  • From the perspective of a long-term investor, continued caution may be in order as price has broken into a downtrend
  • However, from the perspective of an aggressive trader, the current confluence of favorable trends in sentiment and seasonality argues for taking a hard look at playing for a rebound in gold in the months ahead

A closer look at GLD's price trend

From November 2022 to January 2026, the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) gained 235%. That's the good news. The bad news is that in the five months since, GLD has plunged almost -30% and is once again trading below its 200-day long-term moving average. If GLD takes out the $360 level, the next natural support level is all the way down at $317-318.It's time for aggressive traders to revisit GLD

From a trend-following perspective, it is appropriate to argue that GLD is now in a downtrend and that long-term investors should steer clear. However, if we make a distinction between "investing" and "trading," there may be another way to see things.

A distinction between "Investing" and "Trading"

My own perspective m

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