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Introducing the JK Misery Index - Part I

Jay Kaeppel
2026-05-20
Our new JK Misery Index combines three key economic factors (interest rates, inflation, and unemployment) and compares the action to the recent trend, to help identify the current trend of the stock market.

WEBINAR NOTE: Please consider signing up for my live Webinar on Thursday, May 21st. I will be providing greater detail about the model described below, plus will show you how to be an expert on assessing the economy simply using several indicators on our website. I promise that you will learn some things that you don't know right now. Hope to see you there.

Key points:

  • Along with our programming team, I am in the process of adding a variety of my own indicators, strategies, and trading models to the website
  • This note introduces a model I refer to as The JK Misery Index
  • The phrase "Misery Index" was coined in the late 1970s when inflation and unemployment were very high
  • The JK Misery Index (JMI) adds interest rates to the mix, and compares the current reading to a longer-term moving average to identify when the latest trend has crossed above a significant threshold
  • As I follow it, the JMI presently remains favorable, but has been trending in a worrisome direction, and should be monitored closely for a potential warning sign

The original Misery Index

The term "Misery Index" was coined in the late 1970s and involved adding the current rate of inflation to the current unemployment rate. A chart of this original version appears b

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