Indicator Comparison To Past Rallies

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report.

Indicators vs past rallies

Stocks have rallied for 3 weeks off a (near) low, so we compare 24 different indicators, looking at their current reading three weeks into a rally versus where they were three weeks into 42 other rallies. For example, Up Volume has averaged 57% over the past few weeks, versus an average of more than 60% during other rallies.

Models are still showing abnormal extremes

Most of the indicators we look at are showing a negative bias, except for the models, which are showing more extreme readings compared to other rallies.

Similar rallies led to positive returns

The rallies that had the highest correlation to what we’ve seen over the past three weeks did well going forward, with 13 out of 15 of them rallying over the next month. 

Even more distaste for sugar

The continued drop in sugar has pushed the Optimism Index to 17, the lowest since August 2017 and the lowest of any commodity.