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Hedgers hit zero while speculators sit near 90

by Sentimentrader
2026-07-28
S&P 500 futures see a rare rapid COT positioning shift as the Regime Gap 7-week change drops below -120 and the Hedgers Combo completes a full 100-to-0 cycle. History signals elevated short-term volatility and mostly positive longer-term returns.

Key points

  • S&P 500 futures positioning shows the COT Regime Gap's seven week net change has just crossed below negative 120 for the first time
  • Historically, short term market performance has been poor after this signal triggers
  • When Hedgers Combo completes a full 100 to 0 cycle, note the split one month later

Futures positioning has just completed a near full role swap.

Hedgers Combo, a standardized 0 to 100 composite of commercial hedger positioning from weekly CFTC data, sits at 0. Speculators Combo sits at 89. The COT Regime Gap between them is about negative 89, and its seven week change has just crossed below negative 120. The combination we want to test has no completed historical analogue.

Hedgers hit zero while speculators sit near 90

How fast the gap moved

The first backtest's event is defined as the seven week Gap change first crossing below negative 120, with consecutive weeks below that threshold not recounted, and 7 bar means sev

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