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Gold's August Push and the Gold Bugs Chasing It

by Sentimentrader
2026-08-11
Historical matches to gold's latest 21-day pattern showed weak returns over the next one to two months, with results improving after three months. GDX's 98% one-year correlation with gold and above-1 beta make it a higher-risk expression of the same trend.

Key points

  • Gold began August by pushing higher
  • After 107 similar 21-day patterns, gold's median return was negative over the first one to two months with win rates at or below 50%, and the edge appeared only after three months
  • Adding the repair condition of sitting more than 10% below the 252-day high keeps the short-term pressure, while average gains still exceed average losses
  • GDX has correlated 98% with gold over the past year with a rolling beta above 1, an aggressive follower whose win rates stayed below 40% one to two weeks after similar setups

August Gold

Jay once built a gold calendar like this one, mapping every month into an eight-year cycle with each cell marked bullish or bearish.

Gold's August Push and the Gold Bugs Chasing It

At the start of this August, gold began to advance. That made us wonder what usually happened after gold printed a 21-day pattern similar to the one it just did. SentimenTrader's correlation module has tools built for exactly this, so we worked through them in order.

Similar 21 Days, an Uncomfortable Short Term

We started with the pattern match

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