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Gold rush

Jason Goepfert
2021-01-05

The Heatmap shows that the jump in gold on Monday was enough to push the Optimism Index for GLD toward the upper-left quadrant, reserved for the markets showing the most extreme optimism.

According to the Backtest Engine, it's been tough for GLD to consistently add to its gains after recording such a high reading, with negative average returns across most time frames up to 3 months later.

There was a +0.30 correlation between the 1-week and 3-month returns, giving a modest suggestion that if buyers continue to be interested in gold even after a surge like this, then it bodes well for medium-term returns.

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