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< BACK TO ALL REPORTS

Gold miners see few uptrends

Jason Goepfert
2021-01-12

Miners haven't taken the jump in the buck very well. The selling has been enough so that only 2% of the stocks have managed to hang above their short-term 10-day moving averages. That'll probably drop even more by the way today looks.

The Backtest Engine shows okay-but-not-great returns when so few were above their averages.

Here's a wrinkle, though - the GDX fund (and GEM index) is below a rising 200-day moving average, meaning it's selling off during what has been a generally positive trend. When we adjust the backtest for these conditions, then forward returns improved quite a bit. Out of 25 signals, 20 of them were higher over the next 2 months.

It's a similar picture for the percentage of miners in a correction. Nearly all of them are now at least 10% below their 52-week highs. When that has triggered during a dip in a longer-term uptrend, mostly positive returns going forward.

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