Gold haircut is testing a lot more than patience

Key points

• Gold's drawdown from its record high has reached a magnitude seen only a handful of times in the past four decades
• Gold mining stocks have been gutted, miners across the GDX qualify as being in a bear market
• A composite panic indicator tracking gold miner breadth has spiked to levels rarely seen since 1993

Averages lie, but -24% doesn't

Being a gold holder in 2026 has been a study in pain tolerance. After a historic run that took gold above $5,600 in January, the metal has surrendered much of those gains. Gold has crossed a 20% decline from its peak, officially entering bear market territory. So much for the safe haven.

Does this mean the gold bull run is over? The single largest buyer of gold remains the world's central banks. China continues to reduce Treasury holdings and accumulate gold, and there is no sign that the program is slowing. In prior cycles, a structural bid of this size would have been a floor. It should be one now, but it hasn't been - central bank buying moves through OTC desks over weeks and months, while this selloff was concentrated in futures markets over days. The floor may still exist; it just operates at a different tempo than the collapse.

But from anothe