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Four Markets facing significant seasonal headwinds

Jay Kaeppel
2026-07-08
Seasonality is best not used as a standalone indicator. However, at times, seasonality can be used to highlight potential opportunities with a strong likelihood of success. Herein, we highlight four markets currently facing daunting seasonal headwinds in the weeks and months ahead.

Key points:

  • Seasonal trends should not be thought of as "buy" or "sell" signals
  • Seasonal trends should be thought of as "clues" that tell us "When to look where" for potential opportunities
  • With that understanding in mind, traders might consider looking more closely at Corn, Soybeans, the US Dollar, and Unleaded Gas, all of which are soon entering periods of typically significant seasonal weakness

Corn remains in the Danger Zone

Corn has rallied significantly in the last week off of a multi-month low. However, the Annual Seasonal Trend chart for Corn suggests a continued bearish bias for the next few weeks. The chart below highlights the period from Trading Day of the Year (TDY) #127 through TDY #155. For 2026, this period extends from July 7th through August 14th.

Four Markets facing significant seasonal headwinds

The chart below displays the hypothetical growth of $1 achieved by holding a long position in Corn only during this period every year since 1985, based on yearly percentage price changes. The cumulative price decline during this period is -96.7%

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