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Five Reasons Not to be a Long-Term Investor in T-Bonds

Jay Kaeppel
2026-03-05
Price action for long-term treasury bonds has been constructive, as it appears to be forming a long-term base. However, there are many indicators suggesting it is still not time for long-term investors to load up. Details herein.

Key points:

  • The treasury bond market has been beaten down for several years, and the price pattern has been coiling
  • A recent uptrend and talk of lower interest rates may be setting the stage for a treasury bond rally
  • However, a variety of objective bond market indicators that we follow continue to remain unfavorable for now

The technical state of the bond market

The chart below displays the price action of 30-year Treasury bond futures over the past few years. Following a massive decline from March 2020 to October 2023, long-term treasuries have been trading in a narrowing range without making new lows. 

More recently, T-bonds have traded in a narrowing range, with lower highs but also higher lows. According to classic technical analysis, this price pattern, often called "coiling," is typically followed by a meaningful advance. This has led many pundits and speculators to proffer that the bond market will break out decisively to the upside following this long period of decline and consolidation.

And they may be right. However, several indicators remain unfavorable for long-term treasuries and suggest that now is not the time to make a major commitment to long-term treasury bonds. Let's take a closer look.

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