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Daily Report : Stocks suffer losses as participation problems persist

Jason Goepfert
2024-12-31
The S&P 500 has been holding more than 5% above its 200-day moving average. Historically, we should expect about 70% of its stocks to be above their 200-day average when this is the case. But fewer than 60% of stocks are above their average, a historically poor spread. Its back-to-back large losses may have reflected some of that poor participation.
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Headlines

Stocks suffer losses as participation problems persist: The S&P 500 has been holding more than 5% above its 200-day moving average. Historically, we should expect about 70% of its stocks to be above their 200-day average when this is the case. But fewer than 60% of stocks are above their average, a historically poor spread. Its back-to-back large losses may have reflected some of that poor participation.

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Research

Stocks suffer losses as participation problems persist

By Jason Goepfert

BOTTOM LINE
The S&P 500 has been holding more than 5% above its 200-day moving average. Historically, we should expect about 70% of its stocks to be above their 200-day average when this is the case. But fewer than 60% of stocks are above their average, a historically poor spread. Its back-to-back large losses may have reflected some of that poor participation.

FORECAST / TIMEFRAME
None

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% Showing Pessimism: 11%
Bullish for Stocks
Inverse ETF Volume
SPY Liquidity Premium
NYSE High/Low Ratio
S&P 500 Down Pressure
Mutual Fund Flow (no ETFs)
CSFB Fear Barometer
% Showing Optimism: 32%
Bearish for Stocks
ISE Equity Call/Put Ratio
OEX Open Interest Ratio
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Rydex Money Market %
ISE Call/Put Ratio
% Showing Excess Optimism
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Options Speculation Index
LOBO Put/Call Ratio
ROBO Put/Call Ratio
Equity Hedging Index
NAAIM Exposure Index
AIM (Advisor and Investor Model)
Equity / Money Market Asset Ratio
NYSE Available Cash
Mutual Fund Cash Level
AAII Allocation - Stocks

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Sector ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Country ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Bond ETF's - 10-Day Moving Average
Currency ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
Commodity ETF's - 5-Day Moving Average
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